Act II, scene I

Sometimes events in the Middle East are more predictable than an old play book. Like trying for a field goal with 3 seconds left on the clock. Certain situations will always result in the same course of action - so long as your leaders lack vision. Here, measures and counter measures are routine - and routinely repeated with an almost mathematical periodicity. Time seems to move cyclically and opening a newspaper today was like opening one a year ago. Take the latest bout of war being waged a mere 50km away from my house. It all started about 2 weeks ago when the palestinian "unity" government (in name only) started to morph into a civil war. The problem in Gaza is that Hamas assumes far more power than it constitutionally has (ie establishing a private army, etc) while fatah never quite accepted that their corrupt political leaders led their country to ruin and lost the election 18 months ago. Hence the power struggle in gaza. As factional fighting becomes more and more tribal (less and less about actual policies or politics), it looked like the bottomless pit the Palestinian Authority was falling into would engulf them forever. But no. Enter the inspiration of al-qaeda, the nihilistic caliphate seeking anti-semitic Islamic Jihad. These guys have predominantly one goal: the destruction of Israel (or any state that is not a sunni caliphate). As they looked out of the Gazan windows and saw their own people fighting amongst themselves, they figured - and were right - that the best way to stop Hamas and Fatah from digging eachothers graves is to rocket israel and get them involved in the mix. After all why fight your fellow palestinian when the great satans puppet master is at your doorstep? So last week as the death toll the civil war in gaza reached 40 in 7 days, rockets started to fall on israel. the first few went un-noticed (to everyone but the residents of Sderot). As the barrage intensified, the PM was forced to act, and act according to the well defined script of middle east conflict. Before you know it PM Olmert is ordering the bombing of hamas and islamic jihad cells in gaza, the devisive palestinain infighting is over, and israel is locked into a "you started it" fight with the rocketeers. Not to mention the victims of this war: hamas militants, israeli and palestinian civilians. Hamas catagorically states that they will not stop islamic jihad from attacking israel until israel stops bombing hamas. Israel, demands calm befor its military operations will cease. If I know this script, in a few months time, truce will be reached, then palaestinain infighting will again cause rockets to land in israel, and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera ...

How far? FORTY miles? Me? No....oh...ok then.

So, as most people around the ICC are aware, I'm been roped into something daft. The Lyke Wake Walk. Now I'm not really one for hiking - I prefer sitting in the pub or watching the Grand Prix or cricket on a weekend - but severe guilt trips from my sister have forced my hand. So I'm trying to raise some money for the charity Heartlink, who did a sterling job of looking after my sister and her husband whilst my nephew Leo was critically ill a couple of years back. So I'm sure you can see this coming:

*** Please sponsor me ***

I know we all get harrassed to give to charity regularly (I got completely nailed by a Christian Aid woman at my front door the other day), but I can vouch for Heartlink's work and in addition thhey have a well defined target of £160,000 to raise in order to buy a 4D scanner, which sounds like a pretty cool piece of life-saving technology. In addition your money will force me into a position of no return - I'll have to do this thing.

So what is this walk? Forty non-stop miles of cross-country pain, starting at 9pm on Friday 22nd June and hopefully concluding around 4pm the following day. Check the details here - and note that:
a) their logo is a coffin, how reassuring, and
b) the walk is famous enough to have its own folk song (versions by Pentangle and Steeleye Span!)

I don't have the official sponsor forms yet but an email pledge would boost my morale as I sit here in fear of the moors....

Sycophants

On friday night, C ordered brain. It was served chilled. It tasted like foie gras but a little more "organ"-ny

The weekend came and went filled with high flying young diplomats partying around me. The party on friday night was a great source of anecdotes however, as I dont want anyone to lose their job over the fact that they didnt know who was in charge of their country, I hesitate to publish these amusing stories here. Suffice it to say that if you are a young diplomat representing a country with mild political problems, at 3 am and after a couple of drinks you may not remember the exact name of the general who actually runs the show in your home capital. That said, diplomats from stable democracies can suffer from similar embarassment as their myopiea excludes the bigger picture. Ultimately, many (NGO, HRO, IGO, UNO, embassy staff, etc) expatriates here are sycophants, "sucking off the nipple of the conflict", which usually means that my proffession is greated with particular relief. People at these events will often ask me "Which organization do you work for"? To which I reply "I was posted in the UK for four years with the ICC before coming to the middle east, but I left after I could feel that I could no longer grow there. Now I work at the HU in the research department." When asked to explain who the "ICC" and "HU" are, I tell them astrophysics which ellicits the usual wide eye gazing ("wait your a scientist AND your not socially awkward?").

One political crisis and a side of resignations, please.

The interim Winograd report - a kind of "public enquiry" into last summer's second lebanon war - was released and the tremors caused by this political earthquake are still being felt. Leaks and the interim report itself (the full report is expected out in the summer) indicated that although not asked to resign, PM Olmert and Defense Minister Peretz would be heavily criticized for their inept handling of the 34 day conflict. True to form both recieved harsh criticism. The report highlighted the PM's failures to criticize the military's planning, his failure to set realistic goals, the Defense minister's inexperience in handling military conflict (for a country where everyone goes to the army it is particulalry noteworthy that Peretz had no military experience), and the governments mistakes in calling up reserve duty troops (which appearently was not demanded by the military). All in all it was a resounding "F". The war was essentially commanded by the Head of the Joint Chiefs - Dan Halutz (the first ever Air Force officer in this position) and the report criticizes his reliance on air power and reluctance to go in on the ground until too late (Dan Halutz already resigned a few months ago). The PM responded by saying "lessons have been learned" and that he intends to "quickly implement all of the reports suggestions" (just how Mr. PM do you intend to that now that the war is over?)

Many politicians in Israel are calling on the PM (and his government) to resign. Even his foriegn minister Tzipi Livni is rumored to make a statement to this effect today. Of course Olmert and Peretz emphasize the fact that Winograd didnt explicitely ask for their heads to roll. But on the day the report came out Olmert's approval rating was: 0%. Today, 40% of the public want new elections, 70% want the resignation of their leader. The feeling is that Israel's deterent was weakend by the war which achieved little. In reallity Hezbollah will probably think twice about striking Israel again and UNIFIL (the inpotent yet visible UN force deployed in south lebanon) is more or less trying to ensure a Hezbollah free zone in southern lebannon. I think the people of lebanon dont feel like they won this war: with around 1000 people killed and 7000 buildings destroyed (versus around 150 israels killed and 3000 rockets hitting northern israel of which a small fraction caused real damage) Hezbollah is weaker in lebannon. In fact their attempt at forcing the democratically elected government in Lebanon to fall via general strikes and protest, has failed as PM Sinora holds on to power. A paradoxical state of affairs: Hezbollah is weaker in the eyes of lebanese people who i think felt hijacked by last years war, but stronger in the eyes of islamic militias and the israeli public.

So what will happen politically in Israel? As more and more senior MK's resign from the govenrment and call for the heads of the PM and DM, momentum will most likely force Olmert from power. If an election is held today, Likud (Netanyahus party) will most likely sweep to power as the left wing voters bloc is frustrated with their party's leaders. No one really knows if the old guard can cling on to power for that much longer and when (if ever) Olmert will fall on his sword. In today's world there is no longer honor in resignations. Politicians would rather pervert themselves than own up to the public's feeling. My feeling is that its not a question of "if" but a question of "when" and an answer of "soon".